Bitcoin Market Q&A: Mining Costs, Bear Market Structure & Risk Planning (James Check & Alec D)

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: cycle went from expecting up to leaning up.

Views

• Next months (next 2–6 months): Sideways: Every single cycle. Give this thing a couple more months of time pain, short-term cost basis will come down. ▶ 25:44 Said again while their call of 7 Mar 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 67.1k when said, 62.8k on 5 Jul 2026 (−6.4%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): between the last bottom and what I believe, probably could be, the bottom in this market cycle, yes. ▶ 07:45 Said again while their call of 14 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 112.6k when said, 81.8k on 14 Oct 2026 (−27.3%).

Levels named

• 82.5k: Resistance (difficulty regression all-in sustaining cost to mine, also the short-term holder cost basis): this one here is at 82.5k, which funnily enough is also the short-term holder cost basis. ▶ 04:40
• 70k: Support (16x monetary premium over the thermo price (cost of production); philosophical, not a floor): 70k is where that 16x level is. Now, that's not a floor, right? ▶ 07:51
• 50k: Support (hypothetical drop to 50k where price would sit at the coin time price floor model): everyone's wrecked at 50k. That is the coin time price. Now, you can see here that it it's just it's the bottom, right? The coin time price is the bottom. ▶ 18:01

Their own position: Holding. I'm accumulating cuz I want to hold it for a very long time.