Live Stream: Bitcoin Sell-Off, Liquidations, Onchain Analysis, Macro & Liquidity Update

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• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Waiting on a level: it certainly helps to reinforce my view in the immediate term over the course of the next weeks to months, cautious, but aware that we haven't broken that first line of support. ▶ 51:43
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): Now, that doesn't mean that we go to 150 tomorrow, but it also means that there's kind of a fair value magnet in my mind up at 150. ▶ 52:32 The call was wrong: 112.6k when said, 81.8k on 14 Oct 2026 (−27.3%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin gets back above 118K, breaking above the top point of control for the second time, then no target given (next weeks): If we get above 118K, in my opinion, I think we're off to the races because that would be the second time that we've pulled down below it ▶ 22:44
• If we lose the upper levels, get below the first, second and third lines of defense and take out the bull's last stand, then 80k (next months): So, that's not a prediction that we get down to 80k, but if we lose those upper levels, we get below the first line of defense, we get below the second, the third, ▶ 16:48
• If price goes down to 80, then 150k (this cycle): So, therefore, if we go to 80, then that starts to look increasingly positive cuz a move from what from 80 to 150 is actually pretty pretty damn remarkable. ▶ 52:42

Levels named

• 150k: Target (capital inflows study suggests fair value magnet): Now, that doesn't mean that we go to 150 tomorrow, but it also means that there's kind of a fair value magnet in my mind up at 150. ▶ 52:32
• 118k: Resistance (top point of control of the volume profile): If we get above 118K, in my opinion, I think we're off to the races because that would be the second time that we've pulled down below it ▶ 22:44
• 114k: Support (short-term holder cost basis, first line of defense): The first one is the short-term holder cost basis. It's currently about 114k. Now, these all of these price levels, by the way, they are not perfect exact levels, ▶ 14:07
• 100–107k: Support (200-day moving average and long-term average of MVRV/realized price): And below that is the long-term average of where MVRV trades. So, it's kind of like the realized price. Where's the realized price average versus price? And that zone is between about 100 and 107. ▶ 15:11
• 105k: Support (below 105 more holders underwater; thin support down to 95): If we go down below 110, it starts to get a little bit cautious. 105, we're below that tipping point, and you can see the gap between 105 and 95 is there's not a lot of support there. ▶ 22:58
• 95k: Support (bulls' last stand; 62% of invested dollars have cost basis above 95k): Um and again, we could get down to the bulls' last stand at 95. That is the bulls' last stand. ▶ 26:52
• 75–80k: Support (true market mean, ETF cost basis, Saylor's cost basis and 2024 chop top cluster here): Now, this is an interesting level because the ETF cost basis is also at 80k. Saylor's cost basis is at 75. The top of the chop from 2024 is about 75. ▶ 16:31

Their own position: Not said.