Bitcoin's September Is Decided by Day 4. I Checked All 179 Months.

On Bitcoin

Changed since their last video: days moved up to sideways; weeks moved sideways to up; cycle went from expecting up to leaning up.

Views

• Next days (next 1–7 days): Sideways: I would be expecting this range to continue on at least for another week, maybe another week after that. ▶ 23:28 Said again while their call of 25 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 79.5k when said, 77.9k on 1 Sep 2026 (−2.0%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): I expect kind of shallow down in that first, uh, you know, in that first week, and then for it to kind of climb its way sideways and up, grinding, uh, into, you know, ▶ 21:26 Said again while their call of 19 Aug 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 68.6k when said, 80.7k on 18 Sep 2026 (+17.8%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): I think that that would be uh very uncharacteristic of what likely is a macro reversal here. ▶ 24:30 Said again while their call of 8 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was wrong: 122.9k when said, 82.5k on 8 Oct 2026 (−32.9%).

If this, then that

• If daily close below 78700 on CME, then 76k (next days): If that does happen, I would be looking for a return down to these gray dots right here in the sort of liinal zone above the midband, which would be somewhere down around 76,000 bucks. ▶ 24:00
• If Bitcoin breaks down below 76,000, then 72k (next weeks): if Bitcoin does break down below there, I mean, you know, we do have uh probably a lot lower to go, you know, somewhere around 72,000 bucks is where I'd be looking towards. ▶ 24:20
• If bimonthly close back above the previous bimonthly high of 82,814 before the end of the month, then 100k (next months, by before end of this month, before Monday): I would have price targets basically at a, you know, minimum $100,000. I mean, realistically, that would just be the next macro, higher low. ▶ 27:46
• If Bitcoin reclaims this month's high (the 0.382 level on the monthly HPR), then 145k (next months): it is going to be very difficult not to make an argument, a strong argument, my base case argument for Bitcoin somewhere up around the median on the uh monthly HPR, which right now is $145,000. ▶ 29:29

Levels named

• 145k: Target (median of the monthly historic returns range): my base case argument for Bitcoin somewhere up around the median on the uh monthly HPR, which right now is $145,000. ▶ 29:34
• 100k: Target (minimum target if the bimonthly bullish engulfing closes): I would have price targets basically at a, you know, minimum $100,000. ▶ 27:46
• 82.8k: Resistance (previous bimonthly high where price was rejected; a close above gives a bullish engulfing): potential for a bullish engulfing bimonthly dildo to close if Bitcoin does finish back above the previous bimonthly high, which was 82,814. ▶ 26:39
• 76k: Support, expected to hold (support band of upper Raven ribbon band one, seen as a basing zone): And look, as long as Bitcoin is above the bottom end, the support band of upper band one, which is 76,000 bucks and change. I look at that as a basing zone. ▶ 22:54
• 76k: Their view is wrong past this (a closing breakdown below would weaken the bull case): Do not want to see any breakdowns, especially below 76,000 bucks on a closing basis. ▶ 29:55
• 72k: Target (downside objective if 76,000 breaks): we do have uh probably a lot lower to go, you know, somewhere around 72,000 bucks is where I'd be looking towards. ▶ 24:23

Their own position: Bought, no leverage. I am buying 100 derps of Bitcoin per day because I have a partner with Derbase.

On Ethereum

Priced against another coin, not dollars · not counted.

Views

• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans up: I think I think Ethereum has actually probably more gains to be had um over the next 6 months than Bitcoin respectively. ▶ 42:26

Their own position: Not said.

Dates named

• CPI release in September, undated: We have CPI coming out. We got FOMC coming out. And then of course, we have maybe the most important one, which is the Quad Witching event, which is around the middle of September.
• FOMC meeting in September, undated: We have CPI coming out. We got FOMC coming out. And then of course, we have maybe the most important one, which is the Quad Witching event, which is around the middle of September.
• Quad witching, mid-September, undated: We have CPI coming out. We got FOMC coming out. And then of course, we have maybe the most important one, which is the Quad Witching event, which is around the middle of September.