Bitcoin: The Bear Market Blues

On Bitcoin

No change since their last video.

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• Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down: what if the way this plays out is weakness for the rest of this week, ▶ 09:47 Said again while their call of 17 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 67.4k when said, 64k on 24 Feb 2026 (−5.1%).
• Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up (timeframe is our reading): some renewed strength going into March. I don't know how low it goes, maybe it drops here and then back up ▶ 09:55 Said again while their call of 13 Feb 2026 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 68.7k when said, 71.5k on 15 Mar 2026 (+4.1%).
• Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down: we're showing weakness now, probably will continue for a little bit longer, maybe some strength into early March, and then another drop into April and May. ▶ 12:28 Said again while their call of 17 Nov 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 94.3k when said, 74.9k on 17 Mar 2026 (−20.6%).
• This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down (timeframe is our reading): everyone sort of knows there's a really good chance this midterm year is just going to be like every other midterm year and be a bear market. ▶ 06:17 Said again while their call of 6 Oct 2025 was open, so it counts once; that call was right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%).

If this, then that

• If Bitcoin trading below the realized price and below the balance price by summer, then no target given (this cycle, by by the summer time): I think if Bitcoin's trading below the realized price and below the balance price by by the summer time, like I would probably just turn bullish on it ▶ 10:26
• If in Q2, Q3 Bitcoin is still only 50% down, then no target given (this cycle, by Q2, Q3): if instead if in Q2, Q3, we're still only 50% down, then leaning bearish into Q4. ▶ 14:05

Levels named

• 60–70k: Support (corresponds to the prior cycle's all-time high): Now, we always said 60 to 70k was going to be a pretty important level because 60 to 70k also corresponds to the to the prior all-time high, ▶ 05:16

Their own position: Not said.