cryptobro

Benjamin Cowen: predictions and track record

@benjaminjcowen on YouTube · Data models, Macro, cycle

As of . Updated hourly as new videos are read.

What Benjamin Cowen has said about where Bitcoin and Ether go next, read from their videos, and how those calls turned out when they came due. Records kept since .

Bitcoin

Says now: Next days: Leans up · Next weeks: Leans down · Next months: Sideways · This cycle: Leans down.

Track record

  • Next days, graded after 7 days: 4 of 7 graded up or down calls right, sideways calls 1 of 1 right, 1 call still open. Early: a grade takes 10 graded calls, at least 3 where price rose and 3 where it fell; score so far 52. Taking each of the 7 graded up or down calls as a trade for its 7 days, price moved +11% their way, added up; holding through the same windows made −5%. Calls overlap, so this is a tally of moves, not a return. 6 graded calls came after price had already moved their way by more than 1% in the 7 days before: 3 of 6 right. The other 1: 1 of 1 right.
  • Next weeks, graded after 30 days: 5 of 11 graded up or down calls right, 3 draws, sideways calls 2 of 2 right, 3 calls still open. Grade C, coin flip (score 47). Taking each of the 11 graded up or down calls as a trade for its 30 days, price moved −67% their way, added up; holding through the same windows made −63%. Calls overlap, so this is a tally of moves, not a return. 4 graded calls came after price had already moved their way by more than 2.5% in the 30 days before: 2 of 4 right. The other 7: 3 of 7 right.
  • Next months, graded after 4 months: 3 of 4 graded up or down calls right, sideways calls 1 of 2 right, 3 calls still open. Score 58; this horizon is not graded. Taking each of the 4 graded up or down calls as a trade for its 4 months, price moved +27% their way, added up; holding through the same windows made −39%. Calls overlap, so this is a tally of moves, not a return. 1 graded call came after price had already moved their way by more than 6.5% in the 4 months before: 1 of 1 right. The other 1: 1 of 1 right.
  • This cycle, graded after 1 year: 1 of 1 graded up or down calls right, 2 calls still open. Taking each of the 1 graded up or down calls as a trade for its 1 year, price moved +31% their way, added up; holding through the same windows made −31%. Calls overlap, so this is a tally of moves, not a return.

Latest words per horizon

  • Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans up, : So I imagine now it looks like we're kind of heading up into the midterms. (the video's calls, watch at 06:59)
  • Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans down, : Perhaps on the other side of the midterms, we'll go deeper into that bull market support band. (the video's calls, watch at 07:02)
  • Next months (next 2–6 months): Sideways, : My guess is that we will continue to spend the rest of the year down here, probably closer to the green line to the downside than the red line. (the video's calls, watch at 01:29)
  • This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down, : So, I would lean into this idea as long as, you know, as as long as the data supports it. (the video's calls, watch at 17:09)

Every call, newest first

  • Next days: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): open until 9 Nov 2026, against 78.6k when said. So I imagine now it looks like we're kind of heading up into the midterms. (the video, watch at 06:59)
  • Next months: Sideways, said : open until 2 Mar 2027, against 78.6k when said. My guess is that we will continue to spend the rest of the year down here, probably closer to the green line to the downside than the red line. (the video, watch at 01:29)
  • This cycle: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −29.2% in the 1 year before: open until 1 Nov 2027, against 77.6k when said. So, I would lean into this idea as long as, you know, as as long as the data supports it. (the video, watch at 17:09)
  • Next weeks: Sideways, said (timeframe is our reading): open until 28 Nov 2026, against 80.2k when said. normally around midterms, Bitcoin struggles a little bit. So, I would expect that to to continue a little bit longer (the video, watch at 02:58)
  • Next months: Up, tentatively, said , after price had already moved +36.8% in the 4 months before: open until 26 Feb 2027, against 80.2k when said. maybe by the time we get out into December, January, ideally, we would start to see some of that momentum uh come back (the video, watch at 03:06) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −4.9% in the 30 days before: open until 21 Nov 2026, against 81.8k when said. other markets test the bull market support band. So I wouldn't be that surprised to see that happen here in the coming weeks. (the video, watch at 04:15) Said again in 5 later videos while open.
  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): open until 20 Nov 2026, against 84.5k when said. Bitcoin sort of continues to show strength, maybe it cools off a little bit and then shows strength again going into into the midterms (the video, watch at 05:22)
  • Next days: Sideways, said (timeframe is our reading): right: 82.5k when said, 81k on 15 Oct 2026 (−1.8%). I I think it could go high enough just to, you know, kind of stall stall things out for a little bit. (the video, watch at 23:08)
  • Next days: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −4.4% in the 7 days before: wrong: 75.8k when said, 86.1k on 23 Sep 2026 (+13.7%). what Bitcoin's going to be doing in a week. I mean, my guess would be it would be between somewhere between 70 and 75k. (the video, watch at 08:33)
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): wrong: 63.1k when said, 76.9k on 15 Sep 2026 (+22.0%). I can't promise you that the next move is to the downside, but I do think that there is a I do think there's a likelihood that that is the way it breaks (the video, watch at 03:14) Said again in 2 later videos while open.
  • Next months: Down, tentatively, said : open until 21 Nov 2026, against 65.1k when said. as we get into that August, September time frame, we're probably going to give back those gains. (the video, watch at 04:03) Said again in 14 later videos while open.
  • Next days: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −2.7% in the 7 days before: wrong: 62.3k when said, 65.3k on 21 Jul 2026 (+4.7%). a lot of times going into mid July there's a brief drop before it bounces again. (the video, watch at 05:39)
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −3.3% in the 30 days before: a draw: 62.3k when said, 63.5k on 13 Aug 2026 (+1.8%), under the 2.5% it takes to count. But by late July, early August, you know, there's a good chance Bitcoin just gives these gains right back, whatever gains end up happening. (the video, watch at 05:43) Said again in 2 later videos while open.
  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said , after price had already moved +4.3% in the 30 days before: a draw: 63.3k when said, 64.2k on 5 Aug 2026 (+1.4%), under the 2.5% it takes to count. You see how it would rally up to that 200-day moving average in like late July, early August? Maybe it does the same thing. (the video, watch at 08:44) Said again in 2 later videos while open.
  • Next months: Up, tentatively, said : right: 61.3k when said, 81.7k on 23 Oct 2026 (+33.4%). So that's what I'm sort of planning for to see it rotate back over to to the cryptoverse, but probably not until say closer to the fourth quarter of the year. (the video, watch at 08:03) Said again in 2 later videos while open.
  • Next days: Down, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading), after price had already moved −2.9% in the 7 days before: right: 62.9k when said, 58.6k on 1 Jul 2026 (−6.8%). Bitcoin stays weak. Usually in the late June, sometimes that weakness will persist into early July. (the video, watch at 14:23) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • Next months: Sideways, said : wrong: 63.1k when said, 85.5k on 6 Oct 2026 (+35.5%). and then volatility just like dries up in the summer uh for the rest of the summer and you get some counter trend rallies maybe back up to the bare market resistance band (the video, watch at 04:57)
  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said : right: 60.4k when said, 62.7k on 5 Jul 2026 (+3.8%). Look for a July counter-trend rally and then look for the final drop into Q4. (the video, watch at 1:40:51) Said again in 6 later videos while open.
  • Next days: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −4.2% in the 7 days before: right: 73.8k when said, 63.1k on 8 Jun 2026 (−14.4%). what's most likely to happen is that Bitcoin tags 70k soon, bounces back up for a few days, and then goes back to the February lows. (the video, watch at 02:32) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said : right: 77k when said, 64.5k on 18 Jun 2026 (−16.2%). I I just wonder if this is how this is going to play out is where you get this kind of drop into June, you get a little bit of a countertrend rally, (the video, watch at 09:02) Said again in 5 later videos while open.
  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said , after price had already moved +21.1% in the 30 days before: wrong: 81.5k when said, 63.9k on 4 Jun 2026 (−21.6%). I think this will likely yield a rally that finds a top within the next few weeks and then we come back down (the video, watch at 19:59) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • Next days: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading), after price had already moved +4.2% in the 7 days before: wrong: 77.7k when said, 76.1k on 30 Apr 2026 (−2.1%). but currently we still you know, we're still in that that strength window at least through the end of the month is would be my guess. (the video, watch at 09:21)
  • Next months: Down, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading), after price had already moved −19.9% in the 4 months before: right: 73.9k when said, 64.8k on 16 Jul 2026 (−12.4%). this is what I think is going to happen in the market is that we will form a lower high and then Bitcoin will just sell off into a a lower low. (the video, watch at 22:23) Said again in 36 later videos while open.
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said : wrong: 70.4k when said, 73.7k on 11 Apr 2026 (+4.6%). And then usually after that rally, it kind of stalls out for a while and then starts to go down as we get later into March and early into April. (the video, watch at 05:34) Said again in 3 later videos while open.
  • Next days: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): right: 64.8k when said, 67.9k on 7 Mar 2026 (+4.7%). and if you're over here panic selling Bitcoin, one of the things that Bitcoin normally does is it rallies in early March. (the video, watch at 09:37)
  • Next days: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −2.7% in the 7 days before: right: 67.4k when said, 64k on 24 Feb 2026 (−5.1%). A little bit of weakness for another week or so, some renewed strength potentially going into March and then another period of weakness going into April and May. (the video, watch at 28:07) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): right: 68.7k when said, 71.5k on 15 Mar 2026 (+4.1%). One of the things that usually happens is that there's some type of a of a bounce can happen later February going into early March, (the video, watch at 01:57) Said again in 6 later videos while open.
  • Next weeks: Sideways, said : right: 67.6k when said, 71.1k on 14 Mar 2026 (+5.2%). My guess is there's a good chance it could hold until March, maybe even April. We could see a little countertrend move. (the video, watch at 17:08)
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading), after price had already moved −21.1% in the 30 days before: right: 74.1k when said, 68.5k on 6 Mar 2026 (−7.6%). I think we're going down here either way. Either way we're going to I think we're going to the two week moving average. (the video, watch at 1:25:04)
  • This cycle: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): open until 1 Feb 2027, against 78.9k when said. Now eventually I think Bitcoin will go to a new all-time high. I just don't think it's going to happen this year, right? (the video, watch at 11:51) Said again in 27 later videos while open.
  • Next months: Sideways, said : right: 87.8k when said, 73.5k on 29 May 2026 (−16.3%). I'm not really looking for Bitcoin to do anything interesting until until at least the summer. (the video, watch at 14:15) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said , after price had already moved +5.7% in the 30 days before: wrong: 94.8k when said, 67.2k on 13 Feb 2026 (−29.1%). it's likely going to get this countertrend rally back up to its bull market support band and 50-week moving average in early 2026. (the video, watch at 34:49) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said : wrong: 88.2k when said, 93.1k on 19 Jan 2026 (+5.5%). So, for Bitcoin right now, I think there's still going to be some macro headwinds for a couple more weeks. (the video, watch at 24:12) Said again in 2 later videos while open.
  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): a draw: 90.4k when said, 90.2k on 8 Jan 2026 (−0.2%), under the 2.5% it takes to count. Now, I do think we will build off of a low relatively soon, but I think it will likely resolve to a lower high, unfortunately. (the video, watch at 02:04) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading), after price had already moved −14.4% in the 30 days before: right: 91.7k when said, 86k on 17 Dec 2025 (−6.2%). possible that we just kind of go down into December, we we we get an end to QT, then Bitcoin maybe gets a little bit of a bounce into early 2026 (the video, watch at 39:08) Said again in 2 later videos while open.
  • Next months: Down, tentatively, said : right: 94.3k when said, 74.9k on 17 Mar 2026 (−20.6%). then that 200E moving average is going to be the focus for the next few months. Okay? Because normally we kind of drop back down into that. (the video, watch at 15:14) Said again in 24 later videos while open.
  • Next weeks: Sideways, said (timeframe is our reading): right: 103.2k when said, 93k on 4 Dec 2025 (−9.9%). I'm still of the belief that the most likely outcome is we're in this phase where Bitcoin is like chopping around instead of being instead of chopping around 10K, it's chopping around 100K. (the video, watch at 29:25)
  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): wrong: 108.4k when said, 84.4k on 22 Nov 2025 (−22.1%). And if we cannot pump between now and then, then that will be the best chance to get a another rally (the video, watch at 24:42) Said again in 2 later videos while open.
  • Next months: Up, tentatively, said : wrong: 121.8k when said, 74.1k on 4 Feb 2026 (−39.2%). So, we said Bitcoin will likely put in a new all-time high in Q4. (the video, watch at 14:18) Said again in 9 later videos while open.
  • This cycle: Down, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): right: 123.5k when said, 85.8k on 6 Oct 2026 (−30.5%). I think the way to think about this is the most likely outcome is topping in Q4, right? (the video, watch at 04:39) Said again in 52 later videos while open.

Every analyst's Bitcoin record

Ethereum

Says now: No current view.

Track record

  • Next days, graded after 7 days: 0 of 1 graded up or down calls right. Early: a grade takes 10 graded calls, at least 3 where price rose and 3 where it fell. Taking each of the 1 graded up or down calls as a trade for its 7 days, price moved −4% their way, added up; holding through the same windows made +4%. Calls overlap, so this is a tally of moves, not a return. 1 graded call came after price had already moved their way by more than 1.5% in the 7 days before: 0 of 1 right. That was every one.
  • Next weeks, graded after 30 days: 3 of 3 graded up or down calls right, 2 draws, sideways calls 0 of 1 right. Early: a grade takes 10 graded calls, at least 3 where price rose and 3 where it fell; score so far 61. Taking each of the 3 graded up or down calls as a trade for its 30 days, price moved +30% their way, added up; holding through the same windows made −21%. Calls overlap, so this is a tally of moves, not a return. 1 graded call came after price had already moved their way by more than 4% in the 30 days before: 1 of 1 right. The other 2: 2 of 2 right.
  • Next months, graded after 4 months: 2 of 3 graded up or down calls right, sideways calls 1 of 1 right, 1 call still open. Score 55; this horizon is not graded. Taking each of the 3 graded up or down calls as a trade for its 4 months, price moved −12% their way, added up; holding through the same windows made −62%. Calls overlap, so this is a tally of moves, not a return. 1 graded call came after price had already moved their way by more than 12% in the 4 months before: 1 of 1 right. The other 1: 1 of 1 right.
  • This cycle, graded after 1 year: 1 of 2 graded up or down calls right, 1 call still open. Taking each of the 2 graded up or down calls as a trade for its 1 year, price moved +11% their way, added up; holding through the same windows made −75%. Calls overlap, so this is a tally of moves, not a return.

Latest words per horizon

  • Next days (next 1–7 days): Leans down, : Sometimes when you get these drops, you'll see it wick down again the following week, right? Like that can happen. (the video's calls, watch at 14:04)
  • Next weeks (next 2–6 weeks): Leans up, : Like I mean, we very well could continue to go up before that happens. (the video's calls, watch at 12:47)
  • Next months (next 2–6 months): Leans down, : I think the biggest window of weakness for Ethereum will come in sort of the August to October time frame. (the video's calls, watch at 11:08)
  • This cycle (next 6–18 months): Leans down, : ETH, you know, I still wonder about this whole ETH idea of it eventually going to this lower part of the regression band and then just spending more time in it this bear market, you know? (the video's calls, watch at 12:01)

Every call, newest first

  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading), after price had already moved +9.4% in the 30 days before: a draw: 1.87k when said, 1.92k on 19 Aug 2026 (+2.4%), under the 4% it takes to count. Like I mean, we very well could continue to go up before that happens. (the video, watch at 12:47)
  • Next months: Down, tentatively, said : open until 17 Nov 2026, against 1.87k when said. I think the biggest window of weakness for Ethereum will come in sort of the August to October time frame. (the video, watch at 11:08)
  • Next weeks: Down, firmly, said , after price had already moved −8.0% in the 30 days before: right: 2.13k when said, 1.71k on 20 Jun 2026 (−19.6%). I think the next move for Ethereum is to come down here to the lows of April of 2025. (the video, watch at 15:19)
  • Next months: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): right: 2.13k when said, 2.45k on 18 Sep 2026 (+14.9%). So, maybe you get a sizable rally by Ethereum a little bit later on. (the video, watch at 13:25)
  • Next months: Sideways, said (timeframe is our reading): right: 2.1k when said, 1.67k on 9 Jun 2026 (−20.5%). I'm going to I I think it's going to hang out here for a while before going into the basement. (the video, watch at 09:56)
  • This cycle: Sideways, said : open until 4 Feb 2027, against 2.28k when said. maybe the price just slowly bleeds and stays in the regression, man, for the rest of the year. Always a chance that happens. (the video, watch at 32:29)
  • Next months: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −29.9% in the 4 months before: right: 2.82k when said, 2.11k on 26 May 2026 (−25.0%). but what I think makes the most amount of sense is for Ethereum kind of slowly bleed down here into the fair value into the summer months. (the video, watch at 10:46) Said again in 2 later videos while open.
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said : right: 2.97k when said, 2.8k on 29 Jan 2026 (−5.9%). there still could be further downside ahead into early 2026. (the video, watch at 16:52)
  • Next weeks: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): right: 2.85k when said, 2.98k on 20 Dec 2025 (+4.6%). Maybe you get an interest rate cut if the Fed wants to throw us a bone and then you could see sort of a rally back up by Ethereum. (the video, watch at 09:17)
  • Next weeks: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −25.7% in the 30 days before: a draw: 2.97k when said, 2.96k on 19 Dec 2025 (−0.3%), under the 4% it takes to count. the window of weakness for ETHUSD is going to stay until early December because it's just dependent on Bitcoin. (the video, watch at 17:50)
  • Next days: Down, tentatively, said , after price had already moved −16.5% in the 7 days before: wrong: 3.75k when said, 3.89k on 19 Oct 2025 (+3.8%). Sometimes when you get these drops, you'll see it wick down again the following week, right? Like that can happen. (the video, watch at 14:04)
  • This cycle: Up, firmly, said (timeframe is our reading): wrong: 3.75k when said, 2.54k on 12 Oct 2026 (−32.3%). my base case now, my base case is that Ethereum will form a low and rally to new all-time highs. (the video, watch at 10:02) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • Next weeks: Sideways, said (timeframe is our reading): wrong: 4.51k when said, 3.3k on 6 Nov 2025 (−26.9%). So apparently the way I see it playing out is in the short term, you're likely going to see continued chop in this range so that the bull market support band catches up. (the video, watch at 03:11)
  • Next months: Up, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): wrong: 4.51k when said, 2.15k on 4 Feb 2026 (−52.3%). What I think's going to happen is it'll chop for a while. It'll then break through, go into the market cycle top, and then we'll get the 2026 bare market. (the video, watch at 17:43) Said again in 1 later video while open.
  • This cycle: Down, tentatively, said (timeframe is our reading): right: 4.51k when said, 2.57k on 7 Oct 2026 (−43.0%). go into the market cycle top, and then we'll get the 2026 bare market. That's how I see it playing out. (the video, watch at 17:48) Said again in 6 later videos while open.

Every analyst's Ethereum record

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